Secret Harbour By-Election: One Nation Surges as Major Parties Face Reality Check
The Secret Harbour by-election has delivered a seismic shift in Western Australian politics, with One Nation quadrupling its primary vote and opening a significant lead over Labor. With 37% of the vote counted, One Nation leads Labor 54-46 on a two-candidate preferred basis, a result that has sent shockwaves through both major parties. While by-elections are often dismissed as unreliable indicators of broader trends, the federal implications of this result are being closely watched, given the current turbulence in national political support.
Labor candidate Georgia Tree has conceded it is “not a great night” for her party, but noted the race remains too close to call. The result is a significant blow for Labor, which has dominated WA politics for nearly a decade. However, tempering expectations for One Nation’s success is the fact that Labor remains in a solid position in statewide polling, albeit declining from the stratospheric highs of recent years. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Labor MP, and the party’s struggles here may reflect broader voter dissatisfaction rather than a permanent shift.
Liberal Leader Basil Zempilas has already admitted his party will “fall short” of winning the seat, with the Liberal primary vote languishing at around 17%. This is a stark contrast to the party’s historical performance in the area, and Mr. Robertson, a Liberal candidate, addressed a room of around 80 faithful supporters who remained in good spirits despite the early results. The Liberals’ decision not to contest the by-election initially, before reversing course, has been a point of contention, and this result underscores the party’s ongoing challenges in Western Australia.
One Nation’s Pauline Hanson celebrated the lead, while Luke Herdegan, who ran in Premier Roger Cook’s seat of Kwinana at the 2025 state election and attracted just over 3% of the primary vote, has now emerged as a key figure in this contest. In the full preferential system used, a candidate must secure an absolute majority (over 50%) of votes, and with One Nation’s surge, the final outcome remains uncertain. This by-election serves as a stark reminder that voter sentiment can shift rapidly, and both major parties will need to reassess their strategies as they look toward future elections.
Shimanta Das 
