Peltola Narrowly Leads Sullivan in Alaska Senate Race as Ranked-Choice Voting Takes Center Stage
JUNEAU, Alaska — The closely watched Alaska Senate race remains too early to call, with Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola holding a narrow lead over Republican challenger Dan Sullivan. According to the latest tally, Peltola now leads in a majority of state house districts at 24, signaling a strong geographic advantage as the count continues. The contest, which could determine control of the Senate, is unfolding under Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, adding a layer of complexity to the final outcome.
Only about 78% of the estimated ballots have been counted, with an estimated 75,000 votes remaining uncounted. These outstanding ballots are mostly mail-in votes from remote areas in the state’s sprawling hinterlands. The Alaska Division of Elections expects that most remaining early and mail ballots will be counted by November 10, though some places may report votes in between now and then. As the count progresses, the ranked-choice system will come into play: if no candidate reaches a majority, the winner will be determined by divvying up the ranked choices of voters who backed the candidates who finished behind them. The system will tally up voters’ second, third and fourth place votes, if they ranked all candidates, and add to the remaining candidates’ vote shares until one candidate has the majority.
Peltola’s campaign is optimistic about the remaining ballots. In the state’s so-called tundra primary in the summer, Peltola gained several percentage points in her margin over Sullivan from the election night count to the final result, a pattern that many expect to repeat itself in this tally. This trend suggests that the Democrat’s lead could widen as more mail-in ballots are processed. However, Sullivan’s team is likely counting on a strong showing in the remaining rural areas, which tend to lean Republican.
The race has also drawn attention for its implications for election law. Sullivan’s plan would violate Alaska election law, which includes ranked-choice voting, similar to New York City’s mayoral primary. This system, approved by voters in 2020, is designed to ensure that the winner has broad support. As the count continues
Shimanta Das 
