Pentagon and Israel Plan Renewed Strikes on Iran After US Midterms
As the US midterm elections approach, Pentagon and Israeli officials are reportedly planning a renewed wave of strikes on Iran, nearly eight months after the initial phase of intense US-Israeli attacks between February and April. However, President Trump has repeatedly vetoed plans for a return to major combat operations in 2026, including in October when the US and Israeli militaries were nearly ready to attack. According to officials, there remains a small possibility that Trump could order a military operation before the end of October, but many believe he may wait until after the November midterms to make a decision. The hesitation underscores the complex political and strategic calculations involved in escalating the conflict.nnOne major uncertainty is Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who remains an enigma to US and Israeli intelligence officials. Some officials say he is not as powerful as his father, who was killed early in the war, and that hard-line members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard make key decisions. This lack of clarity complicates any assessment of how Iran might respond to another attack. Peiman Salehi, a political analyst in Tehran, said that if Pickaxe is attacked, part of Iran’s plans to retaliate would be to strike major oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, including Aramco, because that would immediately spike oil and energy prices. Iranian officials have also warned that Tehran’s response to another attack would involve a significantly broader range of targets, including data centers and undersea internet cables.nnSome officials believe another major wave of strikes could push the Iranian economy to the brink of collapse and force Tehran to make diplomatic concessions. However, there are significant reasons to question whether a new military campaign would prove more successful than the first phase of intense US-Israeli attacks. The initial campaign did not achieve its objectives, and Iran has shown resilience. Moreover, the decision to launch a new war is particularly difficult for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who, if he loses the upcoming elections, would remain prime minister at the head of a caretaker government, according to experts. This political limbo could constrain his ability to order a major military operation.nnAs allied air power in formation—such as Israel Air Force F-16 fighter jets flying in formation during a mission against Iran—demonstrates the unprecedented, fully integrated
Shimanta Das 
