Arab Parties Make Historic Gains in Israeli Election, Reshaping Coalition Math
Israel’s latest general election has produced a political paradox: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc has lost its parliamentary majority, yet he may still hold onto power, thanks to unexpectedly strong support among Jewish voters and historic gains by Arab parties. According to reports, Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc fell from 64 to 53 seats, while opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist bloc also fell short of the 61 seats needed for a majority. Neither side can form a government without support from outside its camp, and the Arab parties—now holding a record 19 seats—have emerged as potential kingmakers.nnArab citizens make up approximately 21% of Israel’s population, but their political representation has never been this significant. Arik Rudnitzky, a researcher at the Israel Democracy Institute’s Arab Society in Israel Program, noted that Arab parties have historically remained in the opposition and have not joined governing coalitions. “It’s a novelty of recent years, plus the fact that their political strength in terms of the number of seats was not as significant as it is today,” Rudnitzky said. This shift is largely due to the Arab parties running on a joint list, which maximized their seat count and gave them unprecedented leverage in coalition negotiations.nnThe election results have created an exceptionally difficult equation for the opposition. Although the opposition bloc has enough seats to remove Netanyahu, it lacks an agreed governing majority. Netanyahu, meanwhile, has alleged fraud as Arab parties reached record gains, and he maintains an edge over the opposition as vote counting continues. His path to remaining prime minister hinges on persuading defectors or leveraging the Arab parties’ desire for tangible benefits for their constituents. However, almost all major Jewish political parties currently reject the prospect of an independent Palestinian state, a proposal that formed the basis of international peace initiatives for decades. This complicates any potential cooperation with Arab parties, which have historically advocated for Palestinian statehood.nnThe rise of Arab parties also reflects a broader shift in Israeli politics. With the right-wing bloc losing its majority, Netanyahu may need to rely on outside support to stay in office, even if he cannot formalize a coalition. This scenario—where a minority government survives with tacit backing from Arab parties—would be unprecedented. Rudnitzky points out
Shimanta Das 
